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Wang, Juanxi: Modelling and estimation of dynamic instability in complex economic systems. 2016
Inhalt
Introduction and Outline
Complex Economic Systems
Bifurcations in Complex Economic System
Critical Transitions
Catastrophe Theory
Expectations in Complex Economic Systems
Thesis Outline
Critical Slowing Down as Early Warning Signal for Financial Crises?
Introduction
Theory
Data
Methodology
Detrending
Leading Indicators
Estabishing Trends
Results
Financial Time Series
Bootstrapped Time series
Robustness of Parameters
Summary and Conclusions
Can A Stochastic Cusp Catastrophe Model Explain Housing Market Crashes?
Introduction
Catastrophe Theory
Cusp Catastrophe
Stochastic Cusp Catastrophe
Cusp Catastrophe of Housing Market
Estimation Methods
Cobb's Method
Estimations of Euler Discretization
Cobb's Method v.s. Euler Discretization
Estimation Variables
State Variables
Control Variables
Data Description
Results and Discussions
Constant Control Parameters
Interest Rate as Control Variable
Concluding Remarks
Appendix Fundamental Price and Price Deviations
Appendix Cobb's Method v.s. Euler Discretization
Residuals
Cobb's Method
Euler Discretization
Incentive and Expectations in A Financial Market with Heterogenous Agents
Introduction
The Model
Basic Setup
Market Clearing Price
The Objective of Fund Manager
Fund Selection by Investors
The Trading Strategy of Fund Manager
Maximisation Analysis
Simulation Results
One Type Market
Two Types Market
Conclusion
Appendix Notation
Appendix Market Clearing Price
Summary
References
Samenvatting (Summary in Dutch)