TY  - GEN
AB  - We provide an axiomatic approach to a belief formation process in an informational environment
characterized by limited, heterogenous and differently precise information. For a list of previously
observed cases an agent needs to express her belief by assigning probabilities to possible outcomes.
Different numbers of observations of a particular case give rise to varying precision levels associated
to the pieces of information. Different precise information affects the cautiousness and confidence
with which agents form estimations. We modify the Concatenation axiom introduced in Billot,
Gilboa, Samet and Schmeidler (BGSS) (Econometrica, 2005) in a way to capture the impact of
precision and its related perceptional effects, while still keeping its normative appealing spirit. We
obtain a representation of a belief as a weighted sum of estimates induced by past cases. The
estimates are affected by cautiousness and confidence considerations depending on the precision
of the underlying observed information, which generalizes BGSS. The weights are determined by
frequencies of the observed cases and their similarities with the problem under consideration.
DA  - 2014
KW  - Belief formation
KW  - prior
KW  - relative frequencies
KW  - case-based reasoning
KW  - similarity precision
KW  - ambiguity
KW  - learning
KW  - imagination
KW  - condence
KW  - cautiousness.
LA  - eng
PY  - 2014
SN  - 0931-6558
SP  - 48-
TI  - Cautious Belief Formation
UR  - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0070-pub-29015234
Y2  - 2024-11-25T03:07:29
ER  -