TY  - GEN
AB  - We seek to find the statistical model that most accurately describes
empirically observed results in sports. The idea of a transitive relation
concerning the team strengths is implemented by imposing a set of constraints
on the outcome probabilities. We theoretically investigate the resulting
optimization problem and draw comparisons to similar problems
from the existing literature including the linear ordering problem and the
isotonic regression problem. Our optimization problem turns out to be
very complicated to solve. We propose a branch and bound algorithm
for an exact solution and for larger sets of teams a heuristic method for
quickly finding a „good“ solution. Finally we apply the described methods
to panel data from soccer, American football and tennis and also use
our framework to compare the performance of empirically applied ranking
schemes.
DA  - 2014
KW  - stochastic transitivity
KW  - trinomial
KW  - geometric optimization
KW  - ranking
KW  - branch and bound
KW  - linear ordering problem
KW  - elo
KW  - tabu search
KW  - football
KW  - soccer
KW  - tennis
KW  - bundesliga
KW  - nfl
KW  - atp
LA  - eng
PY  - 2014
SN  - 0931-6558
SP  - 28-
TI  - Probabilistic Transitivity in Sports
UR  - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0070-pub-29016436
Y2  - 2024-11-22T04:55:12
ER  -