TY  - GEN
AB  - This paper analyzes the implications of different designs of policies, which aim to
contain the diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, with respect to induced economic loss
and virus mortality. An agent-based simulation model is implemented and calibrated
with German data, which combines the representation of a simple multi-sectoral closed
economy with the explicit incorporation of virus transmission channels at the workplace,
during shopping activities and other social contacts. It is demonstrated that
under a policy resembling German containment measures the model closely reproduces
the dynamics of pandemic and economic variables in the aftermath of the COVID-19
outbreak in Germany. Exploring alternative policy designs shows that any efficient
policy should impose a low threshold of newly infected for moving from the lock-down
to the opening-up stage and in the opening-up stage all restrictions on economic activity
should be lifted. With respect to the reduction of consumption activities during
the lock-down a trade-off between the induced GDP loss and the resulting mortality
emerges. Regardless of the chosen design of the containment measures, the introduction
of complementary economic support measures substantially reduces the induced
GDP loss and leads to a reduction of the public debt accumulated during the considered
time interval. The efficient design of containment policies changes substantially
if lifting economic restrictions during the opening-up stage also results in reduced
effectiveness of the individual prevention measures by agents.
DA  - 2020
DO  - 10.4119/unibi/2944282
KW  - COVID-19
KW  - economic loss
KW  - containment policy
KW  - exit strategy
KW  - agent-based modeling
KW  - etace_WP
LA  - eng
PY  - 2020
SN  - 2196-2723
SP  - 49-
TI  - Economic and epidemic implications of virus containment policies: insights from agent-based simulations
UR  - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0070-pub-29442829
Y2  - 2024-11-21T17:01:09
ER  -