TY  - GEN
AB  - We analyze the impact of different designs of COVID-19 related lockdown policies on
economic loss and mortality using a micro-level simulation model, which combines a multisectoral
closed economy with an epidemic transmission model. In particular, the model
captures explicitly the (stochastic) effect of interactions between heterogeneous agents during
different economic activities on virus transmissions. The empirical validity of the model is
established using data on economic and pandemic dynamics in Germany in the first six
months after the COVID-19 outbreak. We show that a policy inducing switches between a
strict lockdown and a full opening-up of economic activity is strictly dominated by alternative
policies, which implement either a much more cautious opening at the end of the lockdown
or a more or less continuous light lockdown with only minor restrictions of economic activity.
Furthermore, also the ex-ante variance of the economic loss suffered during the pandemic
is substantially lower under these policies. Keeping the other policy parameters fixed, a
variation of the consumption restrictions during the lockdown induces a trade-off between
GDP loss and mortality. Finally, we study the robustness of these findings with respect to
the occurrence of a more infectious virus mutation.
DA  - 2021
DO  - 10.4119/unibi/2952428
KW  - COVID-19
KW  - economic loss
KW  - containment policy
KW  - variance of policy effects
KW  - agentbased modeling
KW  - etace_WP
LA  - eng
PY  - 2021
SN  - 2196-2723
SP  - 61-
TI  - How to design virus containment polices? A joint analysis of economic and epidemic dynamics under the COVID-19 pandemic
UR  - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0070-pub-29524281
Y2  - 2024-11-22T03:53:47
ER  -