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Awass, Adane Abebe: Hydrological drought analysis- occurrence, severity, risks : the case of Wabi Shebele River Basin, Ethiopia. 2009
Inhalt
Declaration of Authorship
Acknowledgements
Abstract
Contents
List of Figures
List of Tables
Acronyms and Abbreviations
1 Introduction
1.1 Background and Statement of the Problem
1.2 Research Objective
1.3 Scope of the Study
1.4 Conceptual Framework of the Research
1.5 Organization of the Thesis
2 Description of Study Area and Data
2.1 General Physiographic Condition
2.1.1 Location, Coverage
2.1.2 Topographic Features
2.1.3 Geologic Features
2.1.4 Land Use/Land Cover
2.1.5 Soils
2.2 Hydro Climatic Conditions
2.2.1 Climatic Situation
2.2.2 Hydrological Situation
2.3 Socio-economics
2.3.1 Population and Settlement
2.3.2 Water Consumption
2.3.3 Major Drought Episodes
3 Characterising Hydrological Drought
3.1 Background
3.2 Genesis of the Process
3.3 Drought Indices
3.3.1 Standardized Precipitation Index
3.3.2 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
3.3.3 Palmer Drought Severity Index
3.3.4 Surface Water Supply Index
3.3.5 Multivariate Aggregate Drought Index
3.3.5.1 Background
3.3.5.2 Data and Methodology
3.3.5.3 Aggregate Drought Index
3.3.5.4 Results and Discussion
3.4 Hydrologic Drought Event Definition
3.4.1 Categories of Hydrological Drought
3.4.2 Drought Variables
3.4.3 Assessing Threshold Levels
4 Hydrologically Homogeneous Drought Pools
4.1 Catchment Characteristics as Predictors of Base Flow Index
4.1.1 Background
4.1.2 Data and Methodology
4.1.3 Results and Discussion
4.1.4 Conclusions
4.2 Pooled Estimates of Low Flow Quantiles
4.2.1 Background
4.2.2 Data and Methodology
4.2.3 Conclusion
4.3 Pattern Recognition
4.4 Formation of Homogeneous Pools at Basin Scale
4.4.1 Delineation of the Hydrological Pools
4.4.2 Homogeneity of Pool Tests
5 Spatial Patterns of Hydrological Drought
5.1 Background
5.2 Data and Methodology
5.2.1 Principal Component Analysis
5.2.2 Wavelet Analysis
5.3 Area Coverage of Recent Worst Droughts
5.4 Severity-area-frequency
5.4.1 Kernel Density Estimation
5.4.2 Results and Discussion
6 Paleohydrology
6.1 Background on Proxy Data
6.2 Dendrochronologic Records
6.3 Reconstructing Streamflows
6.3.1 Disaggregation of Annual Flows
6.3.2 Hydrological Drought Variables
6.3.2.1 Comparison with Instrumental Data
6.3.2.2 Univariate Drought Frequency
7 Stochastic Simulation of Severity of Drought
7.1 Trends of Drought
7.2 Background
7.3 Data and Methodology
7.3.1 Time Series Analysis
7.4 Results and Discussion
7.4.1 Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)
7.4.2 Schwarz Bayesian Criterion (SBC)
7.5 Conclusion
8 Double Chain Markov Model
8.1 Background
8.2 Homogeneous Markov Model
8.2.1 Nth order Markov Model
8.3 Non-homogeneous Markov Model
8.4 Hidden Markov Model (HMM)
8.5 Double Chain Markov Model (DCMM)
8.5.1 Maximum-likelihood Estimation
9 Prediction of Risks of Hydrological Drought
9.1 Support Vector Machines
9.1.1 Results and Discussion
9.2 Copula Modelling
9.2.1 Families of Copulas
9.2.2 Identification of Copulas
9.2.3 Fitting Copulas to Hydrological Drought Variables
9.2.3.1 Non-parametric Estimation
9.2.3.2 Parametric Estimation
9.2.3.3 Semi-parametric Estimation
9.2.4 Results and Discussion
9.2.5 Conclusion
9.3 Drought Risks
9.3.1 Implications for Water Management
10 Summaries and Conclusions
10.1 Conclusions
10.2 Recommendations
References
A Appendix 1
B Appendix 2
C Appendix 3
Glossary
Index