The window of opportunity for effective climate change mitigation is
closing. Hence, it is decisive to understand how to accelerate the diffusion
of climate friendly technologies. Path dependence of technological change is
an explanation for sluggish diffusion even if a technology is superior in the
long run. This paper studies the determinants of diffusion, learning and the
coevolution of innovation and heterogeneous absorptive capacity. I show
how the effectiveness of different market based climate policies depends on
the type and strength of diffusion barriers.
I introduce a macroeconomic agent-based model that is an eco-technology
extended version Eurace@unibi model. Technology is heterogeneous by type
(green or brown). Firms choose between types when acquiring capital goods
and build up type-specific technological know-how that is needed to exploit
the productive potential of capital. Path dependence is operationalized as
accumulated diffusion barriers taking the form of inferior technical performance
of supplied green capital and type-specific know-how of adopters.
The barriers interrelate with positive feedback loops from market induced
innovation dynamics and learning by doing, and analyze how these mechanisms
explain path dependence and the emerging macroeconomic patterns
of technology diffusion. Environmental taxes can outweigh a lower technical
performance and subsidies perform better if lacking capabilities hinder firms
to adopt a sufficiently mature technology.